Officials in Washington and Seoul say the odds of a Trump-Kim summit before 2026 are fading, as North Korea has not responded to US overtures and the window around November's regional summits is closing fast. President Trump himself downplayed expectations this week, saying he was uncertain whether either side was actively pursuing a meeting.
Momentum Stalls Despite Earlier Optimism
In August, Trump said he expected to meet Kim Jong Un before year's end and suggested the North Korean leader had reciprocated his outreach. South Korea's intelligence agency later told lawmakers there was roughly a 50% chance of a meeting on the sidelines of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summit, set for November 18-19 in Shenzhen, China. That optimism has since cooled. Five people familiar with the matter told Reuters little progress has been made toward arranging talks ahead of the China and Philippines summits next month. South Korea's ambassador to Washington, Kang Kyung-wha, confirmed last week that no concrete steps had advanced. A White House official said Trump remains open to speaking with Kim without preconditions, but no meeting has been scheduled.
What Pyongyang Appears To Want
North Korean state media has signaled that Pyongyang would attach significant conditions to any bilateral meeting, potentially including sanctions relief. Kim's sister has spoken warmly of the personal rapport between the two leaders, but that goodwill has not translated into diplomatic movement. Ankit Panda of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace put the odds of an APEC meeting at under 10%, suggesting North Korea may be waiting for a more substantial gesture from Washington - noting that the recent scaling-back of US-South Korea military exercises has not been enough to shift Pyongyang's posture.
Could China Or Last-Minute Diplomacy Change The Outlook?
Beijing's close ties to Pyongyang give it potential leverage to help restart talks, and Trump is expected to continue engaging Chinese President Xi Jinping at the APEC summit. Still, warmer US-China relations have not yet produced any breakthrough involving North Korea. US Ambassador to South Korea Michelle Steel noted that a summit could still be announced on short notice - potentially just a day or two in advance - if arrangements came together quickly. Seoul's foreign ministry says it will keep coordinating with Washington to facilitate talks, while acknowledging the timeline remains unclear.
Why It Matters For Regional Security
The Korean Peninsula remains divided under the armistice that halted the 1950-1953 Korean War without a formal peace treaty. The US maintains about 28,500 troops in South Korea, while North Korea continues advancing its nuclear and missile programs; South Korean officials estimate Pyongyang holds between 80 and 120 nuclear warheads. Trump met Kim three times during his first term, in 2018 and 2019, without reaching a lasting denuclearization agreement - a history that underscores why personal diplomacy alone may not resolve the two sides' deeper disagreements this time.